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medium impactemployment

ADP Nonfarm Employment Change

Wednesday, November 4, 2026 at 06:45 PM IST

Actual

—

Estimate

—

Predictive Analysis

Pre-event

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Gold

Gold (XAU/USD)

◆NEUTRAL

Signal confidence

52%

Ballpark support / resistance (live price ± typical move)

Support

3,988.90

−19.00

Move

−19.00/+27.00

Resistance

4,034.90

+27.00

Ballpark only — derived from the live price and this event's typical historical move, not chart-based technical levels.

Analysis

Jobs data in line with estimates. Gold likely takes its cue from the details -- wage growth and the participation rate will be closely watched. If wages are hot, gold could still dip despite headline payrolls being inline.

Historical moves (last 5)

NFP 215K vs 185K est

Jun 2026

-22.00

NFP 160K vs 195K est

May 2026

+29.00

NFP 203K vs 190K est

Apr 2026

-16.00

NFP 140K vs 170K est

Mar 2026

+33.00

NFP 178K vs 180K est

Feb 2026

-5.00

Average move (all scenarios)21.00 oz

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Silver

Silver (XAG/USD)

◆NEUTRAL

Signal confidence

50%

Ballpark support / resistance (live price ± typical move)

Support

53.60

−0.35

Move

−0.35/+0.44

Resistance

54.39

+0.44

Ballpark only — derived from the live price and this event's typical historical move, not chart-based technical levels.

Analysis

In-line employment data keeps Silver in its recent range. Watch the gold-silver ratio for divergence signals.

Historical moves (last 5)

NFP 215K vs 185K est

Jun 2026

-0.39

NFP 160K vs 195K est

May 2026

+0.52

NFP 203K vs 190K est

Apr 2026

-0.30

NFP 140K vs 170K est

Mar 2026

+0.62

NFP 178K vs 180K est

Feb 2026

-0.09

Average move (all scenarios)0.38 oz

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Crude Oil

WTI Crude Oil

◆NEUTRAL

Signal confidence

50%

Ballpark support / resistance (live price ± typical move)

Support

102.37

−0.90

Move

−0.90/+1.10

Resistance

104.37

+1.10

Ballpark only — derived from the live price and this event's typical historical move, not chart-based technical levels.

Analysis

In-line jobs data. WTI will watch the dollar reaction post-NFP more than the headline number itself.

Historical moves (last 5)

NFP 215K vs 185K est

Jun 2026

+0.85

NFP 160K vs 195K est

May 2026

-1.20

NFP 203K vs 190K est

Apr 2026

+0.60

NFP 140K vs 170K est

Mar 2026

-0.95

NFP 178K vs 180K est

Feb 2026

+0.20

Average move (all scenarios)0.76 bbl

Current prices (live context)

XAUUSD

$4,007.90

XAGUSD

$53.95

WTI

$103.27