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high impactinflation

PCE Price Index (Fed's preferred inflation gauge)

Wednesday, November 25, 2026 at 07:00 PM IST

Actual

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Estimate

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Previous

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Predictive Analysis

Pre-event
๐Ÿฅ‡

Gold

Gold (XAU/USD)

โ—†NEUTRAL
Signal confidence
50%

Ballpark support / resistance (live price ยฑ typical move)

Support

3,986.90

โˆ’21.00

Move

โˆ’21.00/+26.00

Resistance

4,033.90

+26.00

Ballpark only โ€” derived from the live price and this event's typical historical move, not chart-based technical levels.

Analysis

Inflation in line with estimates provides little new information for markets. Gold is likely to remain range-bound unless Powell's subsequent commentary shifts the tone. Watch for second-order signals in core components.

Historical moves (last 5)

CPI 3.1% vs 3.0% est

Jun 2026

-19.00

CPI 3.0% vs 3.1% est

May 2026

+22.00

CPI 3.2% vs 3.1% est

Apr 2026

-24.00

CPI 3.0% vs 3.0% est

Mar 2026

+7.00

CPI 2.9% vs 3.1% est

Feb 2026

+31.00
Average move (all scenarios)20.60 oz
๐Ÿฅˆ

Silver

Silver (XAG/USD)

โ—†NEUTRAL
Signal confidence
50%

Ballpark support / resistance (live price ยฑ typical move)

Support

53.53

โˆ’0.42

Move

โˆ’0.42/+0.52

Resistance

54.47

+0.52

Ballpark only โ€” derived from the live price and this event's typical historical move, not chart-based technical levels.

Analysis

In-line CPI keeps Silver in a narrow range. Industrial demand outlook and copper correlation may dominate near-term price action rather than monetary policy expectations.

Historical moves (last 5)

CPI 3.1% vs 3.0% est

Jun 2026

-0.38

CPI 3.0% vs 3.1% est

May 2026

+0.44

CPI 3.2% vs 3.1% est

Apr 2026

-0.42

CPI 3.0% vs 3.0% est

Mar 2026

+0.11

CPI 2.9% vs 3.1% est

Feb 2026

+0.58
Average move (all scenarios)0.39 oz

Current prices (live context)

XAUUSD

$4,007.90

XAGUSD

$53.95

WTI

$103.27